COVID-19 School Closures: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects

In this brief, the authors look at labor productivity effects from reduced in-person learning resulting from school closures and remote learning. They estimate that the learning loss from school closures reduced GDP by 3.6 percent in 2050. Extending the 2021-22 school year by one month would cost about $75 billion nationally but would limit the reduction in GDP to 3.1 percent. This smaller reduction in GDP produces a net present value gain of $1.2 trillion over the next three decades, equal to about a $16 return for each $1 invested in extending the 2021-22 school year.